Cryptocurrencies promise to be central to Donald Trump’s economic policies in his second term as US president. Arguably his most controversial proposal is the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR). This would involve the US buying up large amounts of the cryptocurrency over the coming years to hold as a reserve, similar to the country’s strategic petroleum reserve.

But there has been debate between advocates of the plan and sceptics like Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The main political questions have centred around what an SBR would look like and whether Trump will even be able to deliver on this proposal.

However, there is potentially an even bigger idea in play – a significant shift in the global economic order, where new players and new forms of currency begin to take an ever-larger role.

The main advocate of an SBR, Republican senator Cynthia Lummis, has proposed that the US acquires 200,000 bitcoin a year for five years.

But a more likely first step is to designate the approximately 207,000 bitcoin already held by the United States as a reserve to be held by the US Treasury. Any additional large purchases of bitcoin would require a law change and the assent of the US Treasury, which is currently opposed.

On the question of whether Trump can achieve his pledge, it is unclear whether an SBR at the federal level would have the votes to pass through the House of Representatives, the US’s lower chamber. However, there are already 13 US states that are actively considering or have proposed legislation to establish a SBR.

Economically, however, one of the main arguments is that an SBR can act as a hedge to protect a country’s wealth against inflation and currency devaluation. Whereas typical currencies can be printed at will by central banks, causing their value to decrease, there is a fixed supply of bitcoin (the number in circulation cannot pass 21 million), potentially limiting its devaluation.

So advocates say an SBR could act as a relatively safe store of wealth in much the same way as gold reserves are now. It is for this reason that bitcoin has been labelled “digital gold”.

Another popular argument is that the monetary value of the SBR could appreciate rapidly and hence pay down US national debt. This too is largely a theoretical and untested argument however, and the precise mechanisms remain unclear.

On the other hand, some analysts are concerned that an SBR could undermine confidence in the dollar, leading to financial instability. If bitcoin were widely adopted as a global reserve currency, for example, this might destabilise the dollar’s position as the world’s primary reserve currency.

Of course, any such instability may be heightened by bitcoin’s historic price volatility. This saw, for example, its price soar from around US$3,800 (£3,126) at the start of 2019 to nearly US$68,000 in November 2021. It then lost almost half of its value by late January 2022, falling to about US$35,000. But today it is above US$95,000.

Beyond these concerns, however, the SBR highlights a more fundamental, era-defining shift – one that is already under way.

To understand this shift, it is helpful to place the rise of cryptocurrencies in context. The post-second world war order was initially structured around a dollar-dominated system – with the US dollar pegged to gold and a host of other currencies pegged to the dollar. This provided stability and confidence in the dollar’s value.

The fixed-rate system was abandoned in the 1970s, however US dominance was retained through the petrodollar system where oil was priced in dollars. The dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and the US’s influence in international institutions like the IMF and World Bank reinforced this dominance.

But three overlapping trends have threatened to dislodge the dominance of the dollar over the past two decades. First, the rise of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others (the BRICS+) is creating a more multipolar global system. This is challenging the US’s position as the sole superpower, and reshaping the geopolitical landscape. While experiencing rapid economic growth, these countries have also increased their global leadership roles.

The second trend has been the decentralisation of the financial system and the rise of “private money”, particularly in response to the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Private money refers to any token used as money that is not backed or controlled by a sovereign or central bank. In this sense cryptocurrencies – which operate independently of traditional central bank and treasury money supply mechanisms – are the archetypal private money.

Besides the shift towards private money lies a third trend. This is where governments give private actors like crypto providers and exchanges significant control (“infrastructural power”) in a bid to achieve public policy goals using the financial tools and services provided by these actors. This is a big change from the old order where governments had more direct authority.

A crypto arms-race?

Reports that Trump has made crypto a priority signal the next step in this shift. The balance of power is moving away from states and towards companies that block-hold cryptocurrencies, exchanges upon which cryptocurrencies are traded, and the owners of exchange-traded cryptocurrency funds.

This could be a watershed moment. If the US, another leading economic power (like China), or a series of larger emerging economies (like the rest of the BRICS) become block-holders of bitcoin or other major cryptocurrencies, it could trigger the emergence of a cryptocurrency “arms race” on a global scale. This would see country after country rushing to bolster their reserves.

There are already media reports that other nations, including Japan, Russia and China, are accumulating bitcoin ahead of a possible SBR announcement by the US. And Trump has even indicated that he might repeal a controversial crypto accounting rule that would allow banks to hold more bitcoin.

These trends have the potential to reshape the global economic order, by incorporating private money and the infrastructural power of private actors into a realm traditionally dominated by leading states and their national currencies.

Trump’s ambitions for an SBR will underline the growing role of private money in the world economy. But these shifts in the global order are already underway – regardless of whether the new president’s plans for bitcoin are realised.

(Main image on top: By Benjamin Nelan from Pixabay)

About the authors: Huw Macartney is Associate professor in Political Economy, University of Birmingham; Erin McCracken is PhD Candidate in cryptocurrencies, University of Birmingham; Robert Elliott is Professor of Economics, University of Birmingham. This story has been taken from The Conversation and The NewsPorter bears no responsibility for the content.

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Scott Lucas, an expert in the Middle East conflict at University College Dublin, explains the key issues that have led to the agreement and what it means for the future of the region.

What do we know about this ceasefire deal?

Despite hopes for several days that a ceasefire might finally be agreed, there are still twists, turns, and uncertainty. Even as Qatar was announcing that its prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed al-Thani – who is also the country’s foreign minister – would hold a press conference, the Associated Press announced that the talks had hit a last-minute snag with Israel blaming Hamas.

Just after 5pm GMT, Israeli as well as Hamas and Qatari officials said Israel and Hamas had accepted a three-stage deal. But an hour later, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the agreement was still not confirmed. It’s hard to think the uncertainty won’t persist until Israel’s cabinet votes to accept the deal.

Under the agreement, in the first, six-week stage around 1,650 Palestinians will be released from Israeli prisoners. Meanwhile 33 of around 95 hostages – some alive, some dead – will be freed by Hamas and other groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Israeli forces will withdraw from population centres, Palestinians will be allowed to start returning to their homes in northern Gaza. And there will be a surge of humanitarian aid, with around 600 trucks entering each day.

In the second stage, Hamas has pledged to release the remaining living captives, most of them male soldiers, in exchange for release of more Palestinians and the “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza. In the third phase, the bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza under international supervision.

At 5.02pm GMT/UTC, Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social website confirming that a deal had been agreed.

But if Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu — the long-time obstacle to a final agreement — dropped his objections, he could face unrest within his cabinet from hard-right members. National security minister Itamar Ben Gvir has called on finance minister Bezalel Smotrich to join him again in thwarting an agreement.

So the important caveat to any celebration is that the deal still has to be approved by Israel’s ministers.

We’ve been here before – what has changed?

The three-stage proposal was put forward last May and discussed through the summer. In September, one of Israel’s lead negotiators, Mossad head David Barnea, returned to Qatar amid hopes for a resolution. But Netanyahu then publicly imposed the condition that Israeli troops continue their occupation of two areas in Gaza, the Philadelphi Corridor along the Egypt border, and the Netzarim Corridor across the centre of the Strip.

It is unclear why Netanyahu may now accept a ceasefire. Some reports cite a meeting with Steve Witkoff, the envoy of incoming US president Donald Trump. But Trump effectively gave Netanyahu a blank cheque in October, saying: “Bibi, do what you have to do”.

The Israeli political environment is far more likely to be instrumental. Netanyahu has been under pressure for months from former members of his war cabinet, Benny Gantz and the now-dismissed defence minister, Yoav Gallant as well as from opposition parties and from sections of Israeli society, notably the families of hostages.

Netanyahu had long resisted that pressure, preferring the “open-ended” war with the quest to “absolutely destroy” Hamas. He may now calculate that his agreement to stop, with Hamas far from destroyed now does not look like a capitulation to Hamas, the Biden administration, or his domestic foes. He may present the agreement as a pragmatic step, given the change of power in the US with a new president who will sing his praises.

Still, he faces the risk that a ceasefire could mean early elections as his government fractures. That could mean a return of focus to his trial on bribery charges. And so, up to the last minute, he will hesitate, waver, and confuse.

Israeli and Arab officials may be flattering Trump’s ego with the portrayal of Witkoff’s intervention swaying the prime minister. There has been no indication of what pressure or incentive that the envoy brought Netanyahu.

One possibility is that the incoming Trump administration has signalled that it will accept an expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian West Bank. This would reinforce the position taken by Trump in his first term, and the hard-right Israeli ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich could drop any ceasefire objections in return for an assurance of Washington’s support.

Can Netanyahu make this deal stick at home?

If Netanyahu finally does accept the agreement, he should be able to ride out the immediate opposition from Ben Gvir and possibly others such as Smotrich. Opposition leaders have already backed the deal, and much of the Israeli population is weary of the military campaign anbd just wants the violence to end.

Although Netanyahu cannot claim “absolute victory” over Hamas, which is his long-stated goal, he can point to the decimation of the organisation’s top ranks. Since the latest round of the conflict began in October 2023, Hamas has lost its military leader, Yahya Sinwar, its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammad Deif, the planner of Hamas’ mass killings inside Israel on October 7, 2023.

Most importantly, Netanyahu can present the return of all of the hostages. He’ll hope for a boost, but just from the celebrations of the families of those still alive, but also from the families of the dead, who will have a chance at closure.

How about the future of Hamas and Gaza?

Hamas will have to rebuild, probably with Yahya Sinwar’s brother Mohammed as the new leader. Its political and military commands will have to reestablish themselves. But the group has survived inside Gaza. Not only has it not been expelled, but at this point there is no apparent alternative to its governance. So it will have to be involved at some level not only in the maintenance of the ceasefire but in the reconstruction operations.

As for Gaza’s civilians, they have long been the expendable pawns in this conflict. They are the large majority of the more than 46,000 killed – which is a conservative figure. At least 1.9 million, out of a population of around around 2.2 million, are now displaced and in dire humanitarian conditions.

While the ceasefire would halt Israeli attacks and allow some people to return to their homes, the situation is likely to be precarious. The Netanyahu government could always threaten a resumption of airstrikes, if not ground assaults, or obstruction of humanitarian aid.

Hamas, which was not enthusiastically supported before October 7 by many civilians because of economic and social issues, appears to have sacrificed most of Gaza’s civilians for its headline moment on October 7, 2023. It is not clear what long-term future they can offer those who have survived.

Donald Trump’s about to take power – did that change things?

Whether or not Trump’s envoy Witkoff had a direct role in the move towards a ceasefire, the advent of Trump 2.0 could have mobilised all those involved in the talks to make a final push for a settlement.

Given the unpredictable and often incoherent approach of Trump, and his propensity to sideline and dismiss senior advisors, there is no assurance over future direction of US policy after January 20. Netanyahu might have benefited from Trump’s blank cheque, but all others – Hamas and other groups in Gaza as well as the Arab States – would likely be operating in a sphere of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, as headlines swirled about the politics and the personalities, the 15-month reality continued. In the 48 hours leading up to the agreement being signed, at least 123 people have been killed and several hundred others injured by Israeli attacks across Gaza.

Does the killing finally end? And for how long?

Scott Lucas is a Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. This article has been taken from The Conversation and The NewsPorter bears no responsibility for the content/Main picture on top: An AI-generated Image by Save_Palestine from Pixabay

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Last year Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was among those who attended Lalu’s ‘Dahi-Chura’ feast in Patna. One year later, the atmosphere at 10, Circular Road, the official residence of former chief minister Rabri Devi in the state capital, had at least one thing in common: a festive mood shadowed by political uncertainties.

Last year, while Nitish Kumar participated in Lalu’s party on Makar Sankranti, he snapped ties with the RJD-led grand alliance just days later and formed a new government with BJP.

The RJD had invited Nitish to participate in this year’s ‘Dahi-Chura’ feast too, but Lalu’s most-valued guest gave the invite the go-by.

Coming back to this year’s party, several RJD workers had brought curd, flattened rice, and tilkut (a sweet made in Bihar and Jharkhand states), which are integral to Makar Sankranti.

However, unlike earlier, this time Lalu Prasad did not open the doors of his house for everyone. According to information, only selected leaders were invited to the feast. Until a few years ago, the Dahi-Chura party was organised at Rabri Devi’s residence for all party leaders and workers, as well as common people.

Message for party workers

A large number of members from the minority community and women enjoyed the feast even as the party MLAs, MLCs, and district presidents were asked to organise ‘Dahi-Chura’ parties from January 14 to 17 and reach out to people from all sections of the society.

As Lalu, in a thoughtful mood, wearing a long coat and monkey cap sat on a chair resting his legs on another chair, his party workers came and greeted him. The party workers expressed their wish that Lalu’s son Tejashwi Yadav, presently the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly, become chief minister after the polls.

This journalist saw Lalu advising them to work hard to ensure the victory of RJD candidates in the state assembly polls scheduled in October-November.

While talking to newspersons, Lalu said, “Is baar Tejashwi hi CM honge (This time, Tejashwi will become the CM).”

On the other side, Rabri Devi and her eldest son and MLA Tej Pratap Yadav, who was wearing a green cap, were sitting. When journalists asked them whether Nitish had been invited to the feast, Tej Pratap shot back saying the chief minister had not been invited.

“I will not let him enter 10, Circular Road,” he blurted out in a style typically associated with him. Tej Pratap’s statement, however, contrasted with his sister and party MP Misa Bharti’s. When asked about the speculations over Nitish rejoining the grand alliance, she remarked, “Politics is a game of possibilities.”

Talking to reporters before entering Rabri’s residence to join the ‘Dahi-Chuda’ party, Misa remarked, “Auspicious work starts after Makar Sankranti.”

She, however, added that it was too early to say whether some political realignment would take place in the state.

When asked if Nitish would come to Rabri Devi’s residence to participate in the ‘Dahi-Chura’ party, she said it would be nice if he came. “Nitish Ji is like our guardian; he is most welcome if he reunites with the grand alliance,” she averred.

Main image of Lalu Yadav: File picture sourced from media reports archive. This picture has been used for illustrative purposes only and this is not from this year’s party.

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Maha Kumbh Mela started on Monday, coinciding with Paush Purnima Snan (bath), and millions of people have already taken holy dip in the Triveni Sangam.

Meanwhile, around 200 weavers of Bhagalpur, known as the Silk City of Bihar, are racing against time to meet the deadline of contracts. A senior functionary of the Bhagalpur Weavers’ Association said the local weavers had received contract orders worth Rs 5 crore.

Kaushal Kumar, a Bhagalpur-based garments dealer, said he has received contract orders for bandis (vests), and shirts made of linen. “The bandis and shirts, all in saffron colour, are being prepared at the ‘karkhana’ (stitching shop),” he said.

Champanagar, a hub of weavers, is now abuzz with activities with the demand for various items keeping on growing in view of the Maha Kumbh Mela.

“The demand may further go up in the days to come. Orders for saffron-coloured towels, sarees, shirts and bandis have been received in bulk. We are working overtime to meet the deadline,” said Mohammad Tariq, a weaver of Champanagar.

He said that cloth merchants from Prayagraj have set a 15-day deadline for them to supply 15,000 sarees, 10,000 shirts, and 1,000 bandis made of Matka Silk (a special variety of silk).

‘Very, very happy’

“We are more than happy with these orders,” remarked Tariq, who has been in the business for more than 15 years.

Clothes made of Bhagalpuri Silk are in great demand both within the country and beyond. At least 70 weavers are engaged in the production of sarees, lehenga (a form of ankle-length skirt from the Indian subcontinent), quilts, and other clothes for supply to foreign countries like Russia, Nepal, the US, Italy, and Japan.

Talking to this journalist, another weaver from the area said that the saffron-coloured gumchhas are in great demand as this is the favourite of Nagas and saints who come to Prayagraj during the 45-day long Maha Kumbh Mela.

“Gumchhas are in great demand because of their low cost and good quality,” he said, adding that they don’t keep these items in stock as the designs keep changing.

“Our stocks are empty because of the spurt in demand right now,” he revealed.

The prices of towels, sarees, bandis and shirts depend on the quality of the clothes. The weavers, however, said the profit margins have reduced due to a spike in the prices of indigenous yarn.

“Despite this, a large number of families depend on this traditional industry of Bhagalpur for livelihood,” said Sunil Das, a weaver of Bhagalpur.

Situated on the southern bank of the Ganges River and the third largest city of Bihar by population, Bhagalpur is home to around three to 3.5 lakh weavers.

Main Picture on top: A worker engaged in work at a factory in Bhagalpur. (Both pictures provided by Dheeraj Sinha)

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In recent years, the field of quantum computing has been experiencing fast growth, with technological advances and large-scale investments regularly making the news.

The United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology.

The stakes are high – having quantum computers would mean access to tremendous data processing power compared to what we have today. They won’t replace your normal computer, but having this kind of awesome computing power will provide advances in medicine, chemistry, materials science and other fields.

So it’s no surprise that quantum computing is rapidly becoming a global race, and private industry and governments around the world are rushing to build the world’s first full-scale quantum computer. To achieve this, first we need to have stable and scalable quantum processors, or chips.

What is a quantum chip?

Everyday computers – like your laptop – are classical computers. They store and process information in the form of binary numbers or bits. A single bit can represent either 0 or 1.

By contrast, the basic unit of a quantum chip is a qubit. A quantum chip is made up of many qubits. These are typically subatomic particles such as electrons or photons, controlled and manipulated by specially designed electric and magnetic fields (known as control signals).

Unlike a bit, a qubit can be placed in a state of 0, 1, or a combination of both, also known as a “superposition state”. This distinct property allows quantum processors to store and process extremely large data sets exponentially faster than even the most powerful classical computer.

There are different ways to make qubits – one can use superconducting devices, semiconductors, photonics (light) or other approaches. Each method has its advantages and drawbacks.

Companies like IBM, Google and QueRa all have roadmaps to drastically scale up quantum processors by 2030.

Industry players that use semiconductors are Intel and Australian companies like Diraq and SQC. Key photonic quantum computer developers include PsiQuantum and Xanadu.

Qubits: quality versus quantity

How many qubits a quantum chip has is actually less important than the quality of the qubits.

A quantum chip made up of thousands of low-quality qubits will be unable to perform any useful computational task.

So, what makes for a quality qubit?

Qubits are very sensitive to unwanted disturbances, also known as errors or noise. This noise can come from many sources, including imperfections in the manufacturing process, control signal issues, changes in temperature, or even just an interaction with the qubit’s environment.

Being prone to errors reduces the reliability of a qubit, known as fidelity. For a quantum chip to stay stable long enough to perform complex computational tasks, it needs high-fidelity qubits.

When researchers compare the performance of different quantum chips, qubit fidelity is one of the crucial parameters they use.

How do we correct the errors?

Fortunately, we don’t have to build perfect qubits.

Over the last 30 years, researchers have designed theoretical techniques which use many imperfect or low-fidelity qubits to encode an abstract “logical qubit”. A logical qubit is protected from errors and, therefore, has very high fidelity. A useful quantum processor will be based on many logical qubits.

Nearly all major quantum chip developers are now putting these theories into practice, shifting their focus from qubits to logical qubits.

In 2024, many quantum computing researchers and companies made great progress on quantum error corrections, including Google, QueRa, IBM and CSIRO.

Quantum chips consisting of over 100 qubits are already available. They are being used by many researchers around the world to evaluate how good the current generation of quantum computers are and how they can be made better in future generations.

For now, developers have only made single logical qubits. It will likely take a few years to figure out how to put several logical qubits together into a quantum chip that can work coherently and solve complex real-world problems.

What will quantum computers be useful for?

A fully functional quantum processor would be able to solve extremely complex problems. This could lead to revolutionary impact in many areas of research, technology and economy.

Quantum computers could help us discover new medicines and advance medical research by finding new connections in clinical trial data or genetics that current computers don’t have enough processing power for.

They could also greatly improve the safety of various systems that use artificial intelligence algorithms, such as banking, military targeting and autonomous vehicles, to name a few.

To achieve all this, we first need to reach a milestone known as quantum supremacy – where a quantum processor solves a problem that would take a classical computer an impractical amount of time to do.

Late last year, Google’s quantum chip Willow finally demonstrated quantum supremacy for a contrived task – a computational problem designed to be hard for classical supercomputers but easy for quantum processors due to their distinct way of working.

Although it didn’t solve a useful real-world problem, it’s still a remarkable achievement and an important step in the right direction that’s taken years of research and development. After all, to run, one must first learn to walk.

What’s on the horizon for 2025 and beyond?

In the next few years, quantum chips will continue to scale up. Importantly, the next generation of quantum processors will be underpinned by logical qubits, able to tackle increasingly useful tasks.

While quantum hardware (that is, processors) has been progressing at a rapid pace, we also can’t overlook an enormous amount of research and development in the field of quantum software and algorithms.

Using quantum simulations on normal computers, researchers have been developing and testing various quantum algorithms. This will make quantum computing ready for useful applications when the quantum hardware catches up.

Building a full-scale quantum computer is a daunting task. It will require simultaneous advancements on many fronts, such as scaling up the number of qubits on a chip, improving the fidelity of the qubits, better error correction, quantum software, quantum algorithms, and several other sub-fields of quantum computing.

After years of remarkable foundational work, we can expect 2025 to bring new breakthroughs in all of the above.

The author is Head of Quantum Systems and Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO. This article has been used from The Conversation and The NewsPorter bears no responsibility for the content. (Main Image by HoAnneLo from Pixabay).

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Dry conditions across Southern California set the stage for a series of deadly wind-driven wildfires that burned thousands of homes and other structures in the Los Angeles area in early January 2025.

How dry is Southern California right now?

In early January, the soil moisture in much of Southern California was in the bottom 2% of historical records for that day in the region. That’s extremely low.

Hydrologists in California watch the sky very closely starting in October, when California’s water year begins.

Very little rain from May through September

The state gets very little rain from May through September, so late fall and winter are crucial to fill reservoirs and to build up the snowpack to provide water. California relies on the Sierra snowpack for about one-third of its freshwater supply.

However, Southern California started out the 2024-25 water year pretty dry. The region got some rain from an atmospheric river in November, but not much. After that, most of the atmospheric rivers that hit the West Coast from October into January veered northward into Washington, Oregon and Northern California instead.

When the air is warm and dry, transpiration and evaporation also suck water out of the plants and soil. That leaves dry vegetation that can provide fuel for flying embers to spread wildfires, as the Los Angeles area saw in early January.

So, while Northern California’s water and snowpack conditions are in good shape, Southern California is much drier and its water storage is not doing so well.

The Southern Sierra snowpack was starting to dip below normal in early January.

What can California expect for the rest of 2025?

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook through March suggests that drought is likely to develop in the region in the coming months.

The outlook takes into account forecasts for La Niña, an ocean temperature pattern that was on its way to developing in the Pacific Ocean in early 2025. La Niña tends to mean drier conditions in Southern California. However, not every La Niña affects California in the same way.

One or two big rain events could completely turn the table for Southern California’s water situation. In 2023, California saw atmospheric rivers in April.

So, it’s hard to say this early in the season how dry Southern California will be in the coming months, but it’s clear that people in dry areas need to pay attention to the risks.

Ming Pan is Senior Research Hydrologist, University of California, San Diegoa. A hydrologist at the University of California-San Diego’s Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, he tracks the state’s water supplies. This article has been used from The Conversation and The NewsPorter bears no responsibility for the content. (Main Image by Chil Vera from Pixabay).

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The earth’s climate experienced its hottest year in 2024. Extreme flooding in April killed hundreds of people in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A year-long drought has left Amazon river levels at an all-time low. And in Athens, Greece, the ancient Acropolis was closed in the afternoons to protect tourists from dangerous heat.

A new report from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service confirms that 2024 was the first year on record with a global average temperature exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. All continents except Australasia and Antarctica experienced their hottest year on record, with 11 months of the year exceeding the 1.5°C level.

Global temperatures have been at record levels – and still rising – for several years now. The previous hottest year on record was 2023. All ten of the hottest years on record have fallen within the last decade. But this is the first time a calendar year has exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.

The heat is on

Scientists at Copernicus used reanalysis to calculate the temperature rises and estimate changes to extreme events. Reanalysis is produced in real-time, combining observations from as many sources as possible – including satellites, weather stations and ships – with a state-of-the-art weather forecasting model, to build up a complete picture of the weather across the globe across the past year. The resulting dataset is one of the key tools used by scientists globally to study weather and climate.

Limiting sustained global warming to 1.5°C is a key target of the Paris Agreement, the 2015 international treaty which aims to mitigate climate change. The 195 signatory nations pledged to “pursue efforts” to keep long-term average warming below 1.5°C.

While reaching 1.5°C in 2024 is a milestone, surpassing 1.5°C for a single year does not constitute crossing the Paris threshold. Year-to-year fluctuations in the weather mean that even if a single year surpasses 1.5°C, the long-term average may still lie below that. It is this long-term average temperature that the Paris Agreement refers to. The current long-term average is around 1.3°C.

Natural factors, including a strong El Niño, contributed to the increased temperatures in 2024. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that affects weather patterns globally, causing elevated ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It can raise global average temperatures and make extreme events more likely in some parts of the world. While these natural fluctuations enhanced human-caused climate change in 2024, in other years they act to cool the earth, potentially reducing the observed temperature increase in a particular year.

While targets focus the minds of policymakers, it is important not to over-fixate on what are, from a scientific perspective, fairly arbitrary targets. Research has shown that catastrophic impacts, such as a rapid and potentially irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet, become more likely with every small amount of warming. These effects may occur even if thresholds are only passed temporarily. In short, every tenth of a degree of warming matters.

Unprecedented extremes

What ultimately affects humans and ecosystems is how global climate change manifests in regional climate and weather. The relationship between global climate and weather is non-linear: 1.5˚C of global warming may lead to individual heatwaves which are much hotter than the average increase in global temperatures.

Europe recorded its hottest year in 2024, which manifested in severe heatwaves, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Parts of Greece and the Balkans experienced wildfires burning large areas of pine forest and homes.

This new report shows that 44% of the globe experienced strong or higher heat stress on July 10 2024, 5% more than the average annual maximum. Especially in low-income countries, this can lead to worse health outcomes and excess deaths.

The report also highlights that atmospheric moisture content (rainfall) in 2024 was 5% higher than the average for recent years. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and water is a potent greenhouse gas, which traps even more heat in the atmosphere.

More worryingly, this higher moisture content means extreme rainfall events can become more intense. In 2024, many regions suffered from destructive flooding, such as that in Valencia, Spain, last October. It is not as simple as more moisture content leading to more extreme rainfall: the winds and pressure systems which move weather around also play a role and can be impacted by climate change. This means that rainfall may intensify even faster in some regions than the atmosphere’s moisture content.

To ensure that warming does not exceed 1.5°C for a prolonged period, and avoid the worst effects of climate change, we need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is also vital to adapt infrastructure to and protect people from the unprecedented extremes caused by current – and future – levels of warming.

With cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific, it remains to be seen if 2025 will be as hot as 2024. But this new record should highlight the huge influence that humans are having on our climate, and be a wake-up call to us all.

About the authors: Matthew Wright is a DPhil Candidate, Department of Atmospheric Physics, University of Oxford; Nicholas Leach is Postdoctoral Researcher, Climate Science, University of Oxford; Shirin Ermis is PhD Candidate, Atmospheric Physics, University of Oxford. This article has been used from The Conversation and The NewsPorter bears no responsibility for the content/Main Picture on top: A westward view of the Hurst Fire on January 7, 2025 (Wikipedia).

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The Myriad by Sana is a towering, majestic building with a compelling location by Lisbon’s Tagus River (I have to say this is a really long and wide river, similar to Egypt’s Nile). It’s no small wonder that the property is part of the prestigious Preferred Hotels & Resorts Group. Featuring 186 rooms, the hotel is uniquely designed in the shape of a ship with a ballooning sail, moreover, ensconced within the Torre (Tower) Vasco da Gama, it’s awash with natural light throughout.

The lobby has plenty of scattered seating in the form of circular, pale silver-grey chairs complemented by compelling, pigeon blood ruby and black cushions; a very striking colour combination for a hotel to opt for and – it works! There’s also an atrium roof that features a series of cascading chandeliers in differing sizes. But of course, the showstopper piece is this gorgeous, brazenly scarlet piano designed by Elton John that occupies pride of place in the lobby.

All rooms are designed to have the bed aesthetically placed actually facing the windows so that one has a panoramic view of the river. For once, I find a hotel has the television placed extremely sensibly on a stand facing the bed, at perfect eye level. Twin bedded rooms have two cosy workstations tucked away behind each headboard, with the pedestal TV in the centre of both beds. The walls are done up in pale, silvery grey, with crimson carpeting. A circular wall mirror, a round table and two semi-circular chairs complete the look. Although it’s a seamless one-room with an open bathroom concept, a curtain has been provided should one wish for privacy.

Suites have the sofa and armchairs in the living space upholstered in a soft velvety fawn, with the predominant red in the scattered cushions as well as lamps. These rooms also have a four-seater dining table in black glass. There’s a large-screen TV here and another in the bedroom. The bathroom is quite spacious, with his-and-her washbasins in black, a walk-in wardrobe with a round settee, a shower cubicle as well as a bathtub.

Adding a fun, unusual element to the room decor is an egg-shaped, hanging chair swing placed strategically by the window in all rooms, with cushions in the same pigeon blood ruby hue. Other amenities include an electronic safe, large-screen TV, tea/coffee maker, four complimentary glass bottles of drinking water (tap water is potable, i.e. safe to drink), hairdryer, small steam iron and Collection Lalique toiletries. In a rather thoughtful touch, there were some vegetable juices, a cold cuts platter and a chocolate selection awaiting my pleasure as well.

F&B options include the all-day dining, 60-covers River Lounge, one of the trendiest city terraces overlooking the Tagus. Despite the morning breakfast rush, the service is unhurried yet efficient. Lots of variety in breads, cakes, fresh juices, nuts and cereals.

Weather permitting, the outside deck is also available for table service. The River Lounge Bar can accommodate 40-pax while snacks and drinks can also be served on the patio outside the lobby, in the smoking area. Furthermore, the Myriad by Sana is justifiably proud of the 34-pax Michelin-starred Fifty Seconds, bookings for which have to be made four months in advance! This restaurant, done up in metallic copper lights offset by chairs in navy blue and carpeting in a sand-pale blue combination, offers only a Tasting Menu of between 11-14 dishes (priced between 195-235€), featuring lobster, shrimp, crab, octopus, seabass, lamb and a couple of desserts.

Although Sud Lisboa Terrazza is not on the hotel premises, it’s a unique dining concept initiated by the owners of Myriad by Sana and hence, guests are welcome to dine here.

Sud Lisboa is also along the river Tagus, a short walk from Torre Belem, with an absolutely spectacular view of the glittering 25 de Abril bridge. The name ‘Sud’ takes its inspiration from Southern hotspots famed for a relaxed, languid lifestyle, such as St Tropez, Marbella, Ibiza and suchlike and therefore, the menu is Mediterranean and Italian.

With 214 covers all told, the lower hall is divided into two parts: a classic, elegant, fine dining theme with brown leather chairs and wooden tables, with the other section being more informal dining, characterised by fuchsia lighting and cascading vine shoots.

A male singer walks around the tables gently crooning some soft numbers, while on Friday evenings guests can experience dance shows such as tango, flamenco and suchlike.

An unusual staircase carved in wood and metal takes one to the upper level; mid-way, there’s a DJ station. Upstairs, there’s a hip and trendy lounge atmosphere with a live band as well as another DJ station while outside, one can enjoy an infinity pool overlooking the river.

Celebrities enjoy coming to Sud Lisboa because it’s a non-intrusive dining experience (no paparazzi; and the Portuguese are too well-behaved to act fanstruck), so you could well be dining cheek-by-jowl with the likes of Cindy Crawford, Monica Bellucci, Julio Iglesias Jr, or even – the President of Portugal! (Psst…George Clooney’s bought a pad in Lisbon as well!)

For a sublime relaxation experience, head to Sayana Wellness and Spa featuring four treatment rooms (one couple), separate male/female locker and toilet facilities (including a thoughtfully provided toilet for disabled guests), a steam room, a newly installed sauna with glorious river views, an indoor, heated swimming pool and a 24-hour fitness centre. The pool area is charmingly done up with chair hammocks and loungers in pale blue cushions on black wicker, with the soothing sound of rushing water in the background. The couple treatment room is a real treat – not only does it have a jacuzzi and Turkish steam bath, there’s also a hot salt pool!

An interesting detail is that the hotel operates the Babylon 360° rooftop bar in the Torre Vasco da Gama. Entry is not free for hotel guests or tourists; the ticket charges are 10€ in the day; post 6PM, it’s 15€ per head, which covers minimum consumption. I may add that there’s very tight security maintained at the Torre and one can’t enter the lift without a security detail accompanying one.

And if you’re still looking for more recreational options, join the General Manager for a run along the promenade every Tuesday at 7.30AM!

Convention facilities include three rooms, namely, Amethyst, Crystal and Quartz, that can accommodate 16-pax each buffet style, while the foyer area outside them can take 200-pax cocktail style. Further, the 7Arts room can accommodate 640-pax cocktail style; this room can be partitioned into seven smaller spaces (Wright/Rodin/Pessoa/Fellini/Ellington/Dali/Astaire) that can each seat 50-pax theatre style, with the outside patio being used for coffee breaks. There’s also a small Business Centre near the entrance. There is free wifi throughout the hotel.

Now for feedback regarding the teams and services: As a single woman traveller (especially) in Lisbon, you can’t do better than opt for the Myriad by Sana! The Front Office (shout-out to Beatriz and Daniel) as well as F&B teams are extremely helpful and friendly in ensuring one is comfortable. Sofia, the restaurant hostess, is very friendly and took great care of me. (Incidentally, staff across these teams speak fluent English.)

Housekeeping service is unobtrusive, while the bed is one of the most comfortable hotel beddings I’ve ever slept in; I usually end up with a neck-ache, but the pillows at the Myriad by Sana are just that right blend of softness/firmness, clearly proving that great care has been taken to address this point. The boiler and AC/heating systems are reasonably efficient; the heating’s a little slow to kick in.

My suggestions would be to incorporate minor adjustments, such as having towel hooks in the bathroom, as well as adjusting the rather awkward angle of the magnifying mirror. I also find the toilet space very cramped; with the WC and bidet facing each other one is rather apt to knock one’s knees somewhat. However, the Myriad by Sana is going in for extensive renovations soon which ought to be complete by the end of this year and which may address several such factors.

I set out one blustery, rainy morning to stroll through the Parque das Nações (Park of Nations) and its Jardim Garcia de Orta.

Meandering along, I came across the colourful Lince Ibérico sculpture made of scrap and recycled materials. The Parque das Nações is a redeveloped area by the Tagus River (cable car rides are possible) and offers a range of waterfront restaurants, the Lisbon Oceanarium and the Centro Vasco da Gama with a variety of shopping, including a hypermarket (the Oriente train station is just opposite the mall). Other must-visits are to the Torre de Belem and the Vasco da Gama sculpture; the 25 de Abril bridge overlooking these is an exquisite engineering feat! Apart from this, head to the Old Town area of Bairro Alto, Chiado and Alfama. Lisbon is characterised by its Art and you’ll find unusual sculptures as well as street art as you walk along.

Undoubtedly, Lisbon is one of Europe’s most coveted tourist destinations and therefore, almost all major airlines fly into the city, including LCC carriers such as RyanAir. From the airport, you can take bus numbers 705, 744 or 750 which connect you to Parque das Nações; the Myriad by Sana is a short walk away. Alternatively, take the metro on the red line and get off at Oriente station, which is within walking distance from the hotel. You can, of course, take a taxi or ask the hotel for an airport pick-up service.

MYRIAD BY SANA LISBOA

Tel: +351 212 468 688

E-mail:  reservations@sanahotels.com

Website: www.sanahotels.com/hotel/myriad-by-sana/

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Meta has announced it will abandon its fact-checking program, starting in the United States. It was aimed at preventing the spread of online lies among more than 3 billion people who use Meta’s social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and Threads.

In a video, the company’s chief, Mark Zuckerberg, said fact checking had led to “too much censorship”.

He added it was time for Meta “to get back to our roots around free expression”, especially following the recent presidential election in the US. Zuckerberg characterised it as a “cultural tipping point, towards once again prioritising speech”.

Instead of relying on professional fact checkers to moderate content, the tech giant will now adopt a “community notes” model, similar to the one used by X.

This model relies on other social media users to add context or caveats to a post. It is currently under investigation by the European Union for its effectiveness.

This dramatic shift by Meta does not bode well for the fight against the spread of misinformation and disinformation online.

Independent assessment

Meta launched its independent, third-party, fact-checking program in 2016.

It did so during a period of heightened concern about information integrity coinciding with the election of Donald Trump as US president and furore about the role of social media platforms in spreading misinformation and disinformation.

As part of the program, Meta funded fact-checking partners – such as Reuters Fact Check, Australian Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and PolitiFact – to independently assess the validity of problematic content posted on its platforms.

Warning labels were then attached to any content deemed to be inaccurate or misleading. This helped users to be better informed about the content they were seeing online.

A backbone to global efforts to fight misinformation

Zuckerberg claimed Meta’s fact-checking program did not successfully address misinformation on the company’s platforms, stifled free speech and lead to widespread censorship.

But the head of the International Fact-Checking Network, Angie Drobnic Holan, disputes this. In a statement reacting to Meta’s decision, she said:

Fact-checking journalism has never censored or removed posts; it’s added information and context to controversial claims, and it’s debunked hoax content and conspiracy theories. The fact-checkers used by Meta follow a Code of Principles requiring nonpartisanship and transparency.

A large body of evidence supports Holan’s position.

In 2023 in Australia alone, Meta displayed warnings on over 9.2 million distinct pieces of content on Facebook (posts, images and videos), and over 510,000 posts on Instagram, including reshares. These warnings were based on articles written by Meta’s third-party, fact-checking partners.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that these kinds of warnings effectively slow the spread of misinformation.

Meta’s fact‐checking policies also required the partner fact‐checking organisations to avoid debunking content and opinions from political actors and celebrities and avoid debunking political advertising.

Fact checkers can verify claims from political actors and post content on their own websites and social media accounts. However, this fact‐checked content was still not subject to reduced circulation or censorship on Meta platforms.

The COVID pandemic demonstrated the usefulness of independent fact checking on Facebook. Fact checkers helped curb much harmful misinformation and disinformation about the virus and the effectiveness of vaccines.

Importantly, Meta’s fact-checking program also served as a backbone to global efforts to fight misinformation on other social media platforms. It facilitated financial support to up to 90 accredited fact-checking organisations around the world.

What impact will Meta’s changes have on misinformation online?

Replacing independent, third-party fact checking with a “community notes” model of content moderation is likely to hamper the fight against misinformation and disinformation online.

Last year, for example, reports from The Washington Post and The Centre for Countering Digital Hate in the US found that X’s community notes feature was failing to stem the flow of lies on the platform.

Meta’s turn away from fact checking will also create major financial problems for third-party, independent fact checkers.

The tech giant has long been a dominant source of funding for many fact checkers. And it has often incentivised fact checkers to verify certain kinds of claims.

Meta’s announcement will now likely force these independent fact checkers to turn away from strings-attached arrangements with private companies in their mission to improve public discourse by addressing online claims.

Yet, without Meta’s funding, they will likely be hampered in their efforts to counter attempts to weaponise fact checking by other actors. For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced the establishment of a state fact-checking network following “Russian values”, in stark difference to the International Fact-Checking Network code of principles.

This makes independent, third-party fact checking even more necessary. But clearly, Meta doesn’t agree.

This article, authored by Ned Watt, PhD Candidate, Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology; Michelle Riedlinger,Associate Professor in Digital Media, Queensland University of Technology; and Silvia Montaña-Niño, Lecturer, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne, has been used from The Conversation. The NewsPorter bears no responsibility for the content/Main Picture: AI-generated image of Mark Zuckerberg by Mickey Mikolauskas from Pixabay

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However, during the party launch, he did not get as much coverage as reams of newsprint have, of late, gone into covering his fast-unto-death agitation, his dramatic arrest and equally dramatic release in Patna on Monday.

So, has the Nitish Kumar regime infused a new lease of life into a new player in the Bihar polity by getting him arrested in a non-issue case? Or, as the BJP leader and former Union Minister Shahnawaz Hussain says, “PK is an event manager and is managing events for himself to hog the limelight.” Or, as the Opposition has charged PK with working as the BJP’s B-team just like Arvind Kejriwal was propped up by the saffron brigade in 2012 during the Anna movement.

Whatever may be the case, it’s an undisputed fact that PK is hogging the national headlines, and the NDA regime has also played its role in making a hero out of a non-hero.

‘NITISH’S BLUNDER’

Political analysts say it was wrong on the part of Nitish to get a person arrested who was holding a peaceful agitation in the form of fast-unto-death beneath Mahatma Gandhi’s statue at the historic Gandhi Maidan. For those not well versed, it is the same Gandhi Maidan from where Nitish’s mentor late Jayaprakash Narayan, a veteran Socialist, launched the Sampoorna Kranti (Total Revolution) movement against a mighty Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in the mid-70s.

“Apparently, someone wrongly briefed Nitish about PK. All he had to do was to get PK shifted from Gandhi Maidan to the designated area of agitation in Gardanibagh. This way, PK would not have become a hero championing the cause of BPSC (Bihar Public Service Commission) examinees who have been demanding the cancellation of the PT (Preliminary Test) examination held on December 13,” averred senior political analyst Ajay Kumar.

By getting him arrested and releasing him unconditionally, the Bihar Government has given PK a stick to beat the NDA Government with. After all, the BPSC issue was not such a major issue till the Nitish government faltered and used lathi-charge and water cannon to disperse those students who were holding peaceful protests,” said the analyst, although he disagreed with the students’ demand.

“The BPSC has asked the agitating persons to show it any evidence of paper leak before demanding the cancellation of the PT examination. And the centres where there were reports of wrong-doing, a re-test was done recently. The matter should end there,” he added.

PK, however, is unfazed. He says his agitation in support of students will continue relentlessly. “If raising a voice against injustice is a crime, I will continue to do such crimes,” said PK in Patna on Tuesday shortly before he fell ill and was rushed to a private hospital.

EMOTIVE ISSUE

PK, who launched his pad-yatra in October 2022 and reportedly covered more than 3,000 km in 15 districts, has got an emotional issue (in the form of BPSC) to stay connected with the students. “Who has stopped RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav (who remains confined to his room and interacts through X (Earlier Twitter) only or, for that matter Rahul Gandhi, from championing the cause of agitating BPSC examinees?” asked PK, who, in terms of mileage has left his peers like Tejashwi and Pappu Yadav far behind when it comes to hitting the streets.

A master poll strategist, who worked with the BJP and planned its campaign in 2014 through his team members of IPAC (Indian Political Action Committee), followed by his association with Nitish and Lalu for the 2015 Assembly polls (where Nitish gave the BJP a crushing and decisive defeat), PK has worked with leaders of all hues. From working with Stalin in Tamil Nadu to Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal (in 2021), PK knows how rich the political dividends could be if one hits the street on emotive issues.

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