The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth projection for 2025 downward to 2.8%, attributing the adjustment to heightened uncertainty and economic disruption stemming from a new wave of tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump. This marks a decrease from the 3.3% forecast issued in January.
Looking ahead to 2026, the IMF anticipates global growth to reach 3.0%, a decline from the previously projected 3.3% and notably below the historical average of 3.7% recorded between 2000 and 2019. For 2024, the IMF estimated global growth at 3.3%.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Chief Economist, stated that the global economy is currently “under severe strain” as a result of the newly implemented tariffs. The Fund emphasized that its April forecast was prepared under “exceptional circumstances,” referencing President Trump’s April 2 declaration of a blanket 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, along with additional duties targeting several key trade partners.
