LOGISTICS MONITOR
Lifetime worries are nothing unique to human lives. Every product on the planet has an expiry date: a house, grinder, mixer, electronic gadget, or vehicle. Of course, there is provision for repair for damaged or depleted products or human life. Even then, there is a limit beyond which nothing is saveable. Exiting out of circulation or vanishing from Mother Earth is mandatory.
So, anxieties are visible with the world getting into the electric vehicle (EV) mania to fight global warming. Range anxiety is one such concern. That’s not the only worry. There are lifetime worries over EVs also to consider.
Simply put, when to junk EVs? Or when do EVs join the unusable category? Yes, we are asking: what is their life span? Before responding to that question, let us reiterate that the very purpose of global recognition of EVs to combat global warming is less polluting vis-a-vis the internal combustion engine (ICE)/gas-powered vehicles. A related issue is that while EVs per se are less polluting, the same cannot be said about the materials and electricity that goes into its manufacturing, viz., how the metals used in making EVs were mined or extracted; and, what is the source of electricity used in the entire manufacturing value chain of EVs? Genuine worries, truly.
Desires and anxieties are inseparable twins. The desire to fight global warming via EVs, among other things, is one thing, and the anxieties over its less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are definitely related. The battery is the heart and soul of EVs. Therefore, much worry-lines over the battery efficacy from the GHG emissions angle.
Unsurprisingly, there is sufficient work done on this front. Rahul Malik, a battery scientist, working as Senior Science and Technology Advisor in the Office of Energy Research and Development (OERD) at Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Government of Canada, and focused on batteries for transport and grid, is credited with the view that EVs emission calculus gets diluted after the EV has done 25,000 miles (1 mile = 1.6km), not 10,000 miles as some critics claim.
George Bieker of the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) writes in the July 2021 White Paper on ‘A Global Comparison of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of combustion engine and electric passenger cars’ that efforts in line with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees celsius mean reducing emissions from the combustion and production of fuels and electricity for transport by at least 80% from today’s level by 2050 and the largest part of this reduction needs to come from passenger cars. Considering the expected future growth of the transport sector, the change needed on a per-vehicle basis will be even higher.
“… Such reduction should, of course, not come at the cost of higher vehicle production emissions. It is therefore important for policymakers to understand which powertrain and fuel technologies are capable of shrinking the carbon footprint of cars – and not only the emission from the tailpipes, but also from fuel and electricity production and vehicle manufacturing,” says Bieker.
ICCT has done a lifecycle assessment (LCA) of the GHG emissions of passenger cars in China, Europe, India, and the United States — the four markets that are home to the majority of global new passenger car sales reflect much of the variety in the global vehicle market.
One of the key findings of the ICCT study is that only battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles have the potential to achieve the magnitude of lifecycle GHG emissions reductions needed to meet Paris Agreement goals. “The lifecycle emissions over the lifetime of BEVs registered today in Europe, the US, China and India are already lower than comparable gasoline car by 66–69% in Europe, 60–68% in the US, 37–45% in China, and 19–34% in India. For medium-size cars projected to be registered in 2030, as the electricity mix continues to decarbonize, the lifecycle emissions gap between BEVs and gasoline vehicles incr4ases to 74–77% in Europe, 62–76% in the US, 48–64% in China, and 30–56% in India.”
What about the lifespan of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)? The ICCT study finds that HEVs reduce lifecycle GHG emissions by only about 20% compared to gasoline cars. Of course, HEVs improve the efficiency of ICE vehicles by recovering energy and storing it in a battery that can then be used to support propulsion with an electric motor. So, BEV is a better bet over even HEV, as per the ICCT White Paper.
What about the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)? The study finds PHEVs a disappointment. “The lifecycle GHG emissions of PHEVs are mostly determined by the electric versus combustion engine drive share in average real-world usage. This can vary significantly between regions. The lifecycle GHG emissions of today’s medium-sized PHEVs compared to gasoline cars are 42–48% lower in the US, 25–27% lower in Europe, and 6–12% lower in China.” PHEVs are not registered, adds the study.
Auto enthusiast and blogger Ritvik Gupta talks about Totoya Prius, which failed in India. Says he: “There are fully electric vehicles such as Tata Nexon EV, half of the price and 4–5 times of range. Although the Prius is a hit globally, it is not a viable way of caring about the environment with such a hefty price tag. It is rather better to buy a fully electric vehicle which will have lower running costs, better mileage and by better, I really mean way better, lower price and better performance figures. In future, Toyota might come up with a tech that would lower the cost of Prius, but for now, it is not worth buying which shows the reason for failure in India.”(1)
Compared to average BEVs, the lifecycle emissions for PHEVs stood at 43–64% higher in the US, 123–138% in Europe and 39–58% higher in China for cars registered in 2021 and 53–100% for the US, 171–197% for Europe and 94–166% higher in China for cars expected to be registered in 2030.
In India, there is much discussion about biofuels. Ethanol mix, for instance. Bieker is categorial in declaring that the decarbonization through the fuel mix may fetch a 9% maximum on reducing the lifecycle GHG emissions of gasoline, diesel, or natural gas vehicles over the lifetime of cars registered in 2030. “The very high production cost of e-fuels means that they are not likely to contribute substantially to the decarbonization of the fuel ix within the lifetimes of 2021 or 2030 cars.”
Thanks to the fast-paced technological advancement in the battery arena, EV batteries are built to last longer. The US Federal law requires automakers to warrant EV batteries for eight years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first. In the state of California, this warranty is for ten years. Experts claim that EV batteries can last ten years before they need to be replaced. Interestingly, few owners retain their car that long!(2)
Still, there are many misconceptions about the longevity of EV cars. “Experience tells us that the battery will outlive the car. What you’ll probably see is that when cars get to 100,000 or 150,000 miles and are a bit tired, the manufacturer is likely to have the car back from you, take the battery out, put it in a shiny box and sell you back the battery for home storage,” clarifies Graeme Cooper, Transport Decarbonization Director at the National Grid of the United Kingdom. (3)
Charles Morris, a Senior Editor at Charged magazine, turns the spotlight on the research findings of the Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands. “In 2020, researchers .. found that the underestimation of battery lifetimes was one of the most common mistakes in EV-related studies. Upon conducting their own review of empirical data, the Eindhoven researchers concluded that modern EV batteries can probably last for more than 500,000 kilometres- or for the average American driver, over 23 years.” (4)
The featured/main picture on top from Pixabay has been used for illustrative purposes only
[Also read by the same author: Self-reliance is the new buzzword. But globalization is not going to vanish anytime soon – THE NEWS PORTER]
References:
1) https://gomechanic.in/blog/why-toyota-prius-india-failed/
2) https://www.truecar.com/blog/how-long-do-electric-car-batteries-last/#:~:text=Federal%20law%20requires%20automakers%20to,electric%20vehicles%20save%20you%20money.
3) https://transportandenergy.com/2022/02/08/quentins-questions-graeme-cooper-national-grid/
4) The New Yorker, March 7, 2022 (Letters)
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