What’s the point of growth without livelihood or jobs for needy?

Agnipath stir: The job scenario is bleak, and unemployment is a volatile and ticking bomb

BUSINESS MONITOR
By Ramesh Kumar

Bihar is burning. Uttar Pradesh, too. Madhya Pradesh, as well. Haryana, sure. Punjab, also. Rajasthan is not to be missed. Yes, the cow belt is on fire. Though it’s easy to sidetrack by government and its apologists that such spontaneous vandalism is “politically motivated”, it is a serious threat to the nation. Indian youth ran out of patience, waiting for jobs.

The twin catastrophic happenings gripping the world – the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war – are lame excuses for the government’s inability to generate employment opportunities for the millions flooding the job market every year. The outburst of youth in their late teens and early twenties a day after the government announced the ‘Agnipath Scheme’ to recruit a million 18-23 for four years in the three services of the Indian army is a sad commentary on the government’s failure.

Empty train rakes are set on fire, and other hooligan acts are being performed, particularly in the cow or Hindi belt. Such a public display of angst, destroying public property in the process, is condemnable. But, does the Indian youth with a worthless paper qualification, still rated as the passport to a better future, have other options to vent their anxiety and disapproval of the way their genuine grievances are met by the powers that be?

Growth Without Livelihood

What’s the point of growth without livelihood or jobs for the needy? The $5trillion dream over the next five years or so by the Narendra Modi government is meaningless if the army of youngsters stepping out of educational institutions every year is not absorbed into some jobs or others by the government and private sector. Social unrest is inevitable, and we witness this spectacle unfolding before us.

This outburst is not unexpected. It was waiting to happen. Jobs are the livelihood. No jobs. No food on the table. The Agnipath agitation is the beginning. Sure, politicians would try to fish in the troubled waters. Will there be a communal angle? You bet, sure there is. After all, be a Hindu or Muslim or Christian, Jain, or whatever, all need jobs to earn a decent living, viz., two, if not three, square meals a day. Given the current social climate, domestic and external elements would try to leverage further tearing down the already-torn social fabric.

Ex-Super spy Vikram Sood voices his concern: “The frequency and ease with which riots, arson, and violence for totally unrelated and trivial issues have been occurring mean that there is a nationwide well-oiled internal ecosystem aided by an external facility that enables this to happen countrywide.” [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agnipath_Scheme#Protests]

No Trivial Issue

“Unrelated and trivial issues,” Sir? I beg to differ. His observation that “an external facility that enables this to happen countryside” made me recollect the former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi pointing fingers at the CIA of the United States for all social unrest during her regime. She was not off the mark. Just not the CIA. Even the KGB of the erstwhile USSR was active. It would be churlish to dismiss that they have packed and gone today. Several other external elements collude with political outfits to stoke unrest or disturbances to ensure India’s growth trajectory is maimed forever. Remember Pakistan’s thousand cuts strategy? It is on and never died down. The ruling elite is facing a multipronged attack.

Naxalism resulted from Indian youth’s disillusionment with the prevailing social and economic climate. Simply put, joblessness leads to the mind becoming the devil’s workshop, and the net result is violence on the streets.

Who is responsible for job creation? Undoubtedly, the government. However, it does not mean that the sarkar at the center and state levels must generate employment by taking employable youth on its roster. To a certain extent, it has to and has done it admirably: Railways, Postal Service, Police, Government hospitals, government schools, colleges, and the Indian Armed Forces. But there is a limit on this score.

Private Sector Must Chip In

The private sector has to chip down, for which the government has to create a better business environment through policy interventions. Ease of Doing Business is one focus area, and efforts are under way to help the private sector to participate actively in job creation. They have resorted to automating more manufacturing activities, thus reducing the chance of employment to improve their top and bottom lines. The Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), the biggest job generator, are still in pandemic-induced condition. Sops given away during the Covid is yet to usher in better days for them.

For a long time, the government has been harping on increasing the contribution of manufacturing to 25% from 16% of GDP, and the current Make In India and other related incentives to achieve that goal is in that direction. It will take time. But the patience of job seekers is running out.

An Indian Express editorial hits the nail on the role of the private sector: “Further, not only does this expansion in public sector jobs pose a challenge to the promise and goal of minimum government, but implicit in this move is also the acknowledgment that not enough jobs are being created by the private sector, which should be the principal driver of employment generation. With roughly 12 million individuals entering the working age population each year, around six million jobs need to be created each year, assuming a labor force participation rate of 0.5. But this is just to absorb the new entrants to the labor force. Employment opportunities for those wanting to shift out of agriculture also need to be factored in. This requires creating jobs at a scale which only the private sector can do efficiently.”

The Start-up Angle

Meanwhile, the government is crowing loud on the start-up front. One hundred unicorns so far. A major chunk of start-ups is on the technology front, employing a better-qualified infotech workforce. There is no scope for the bottom of the rung: school finishers and ordinary graduates whose skills are nothing to write home about. Irrespective of their employability based on their educational skills, their aspirations to get a decent job cannot be brushed aside.

The start-ups in the logistics segment offer jobs at the bottom of the rung. Heard of gig workers: delivery executives, Uber/Ola drivers, warehouse staff?

Job seekers seek job security and social benefits. All this hunger for government jobs is purely on that account. Lifetime employment, pension, and other social benefits with poor career growth. The Agnipath agitation is all about that. Just four years as Agniveer and then out on the streets seeking jobs again at 23 – ripe age to settle down. Much uncertainty, and nobody likes it, irrespective of one’s age. If the youth are on the warpath, burning trains and looting public property, causing huge economic costs to the nation, it is their reaction to their helplessness and an expression of their disillusionment with the government.

Stir Confined to the Cow Belt

It is significant to note that the Agnipath agitation is confined to the cow belt, and there is no sign of such a large-scale antipathy and unrest towards the government in the southern states. Is it because the youth in these cow belts have fewer private-sector job opportunities in their respective states? Or do they prefer sarkari naukri (government jobs) for job security, pension, and other social benefits?

Concerning the Agnipath imbroglio, more youth prefer the Indian Armed Forces as long-term employability, and the announced scheme truncates the job to four years? Indian Armed Forces have more recruits from the cow belt vis-a-vis the southern states. The pain is acute, truly. Does it mean the youth from southern states exhibit less charm towards government jobs and job opportunities in the private sector – be it semi-skilled or high tech – are aplenty? Worth pondering.

Yes, Bharat is burning. The job scenario is bleak, and unemployment is a volatile and ticking bomb. Politically, if this issue is left to fester, we can write the epitaph for the Narendra Modi government at the 2024 General Elections. Wake up. The challenge is communal-agnostic. The fire has to be doused even to contemplate the $5trillion dream. Just tinkering with the Agnipath scheme is no panacea. It calls for a holistic approach.

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[Featured/Main picture on top is a screen grab from the incident of burning of a train by Agnipath protesters] 

The author is a seasoned business and economic journalist. He can be reached at konsultramesh@gmail.com. In this column, ‘Business Monitor’, he presents a global perspective on happenings in the world of business, commerce, economics and trade. The views are the author’s own and The News Porter bears no responsibility for the same.